Looking at climate change mitigation proposals from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the researchers assessed the likely demand and risks of shortages of 40 minerals needed for 17 technologies, including indium, iridium, tin, lithium and silver, which are used for technologies such as solar, wind and nuclear power. They say the world will likely experience shortages of up to 12 minerals by 2100, with the Middle East and Africa likely to see additional shortages. The researchers say we need to be prepared for these risks, which could be managed through aggressive recycling, substituting materials, trade cooperation and diverse energy portfolios.
The authors also note that these shortages could be addressed by substituting technologies for higher efficiency options, such as replacing current cobalt-containing battery systems with alternatives, such as lithium iron phosphate. Although, this approach could increase shortages of other minerals in turn. More broadly, the study’s authors – Yi-Ming Wei and colleagues suggest closer trade cooperation among nations and increasing recycling efficiency will mitigate potential mineral shortages.
